Trade the readout, not the equity.
Synthetic spot markets & derivatives for individual biotech event contracts — verifiable on-chain.
Anchor
A subsidized synthetic spot market produces a manipulation-resistant probability p for each catalyst, settling against a single canonical on-chain fact.
Express
A dated future on p, settling terminally at resolution — the funding tether and solvency fund built and proved first. Convexity in the size of the move, the exposure the desk can't otherwise get, comes next as a straddle on p.
Warehouse
Liquidity is priced as risk warehousing across a diversified book of uncorrelated events, not delta-hedging against a surface that doesn't exist.
A single clinical readout can move a company sixty percent in a session — on a date fixed months in advance, to an outcome that resolves cleanly to pass or fail. It is among the most identifiable repricing events in public markets, and there is no instrument that isolates it.
The equity bundles the readout with sector beta, rates, and the rest of the pipeline; the listed options surface, where it exists on a name this small, is thin and priced for continuous diffusion rather than a jump; and existing event contracts cannot absorb institutional size. So the cleanest risk on the calendar trades only as a rumor inside a bundle.
Martingale builds the market that isolates it — a manufactured spot price for the event, and derivatives written directly on that price, so a desk can take or shed the catalyst without carrying the company. Priced and warehoused through transparent, on-chain markets that settle against a single canonical fact.
Layer 1
A manipulation-resistant anchor.
A subsidized synthetic spot market with a formally verified worst-case maker loss — proved, not simulated — settling on one canonical fact.
Layer 2
There's no surface to trade.
A catalyst has one date and one jump; the tractable object is the size of that jump, not a volatility surface. A single magnitude contract on p, settling terminally at resolution, prices what a strike ladder never could.
Solvency
Safe by invariant.
The fund-safety condition holds under a quarter-million adversarial fuzz sequences and symbolic proof to 296 shares; contracts deployed and verified on Base Sepolia.
Fund-safety verification
max(Σlongs qi(1−pi), Σshorts qj·pj) + interimReserve ≤ F
| Worst-case maker loss | ≤ 6.9315 USDC — symmetric seed, closed-form |
| Symbolic proof | Halmos, to 296 shares |
| Adversarial fuzz | 262,144 sequences |
| Deployment | verified on Base Sepolia |
Supersedes a cross-side-coverage invariant falsified by fuzz.
Liquidity
Priced from measured flow.
Quotes decompose into adverse selection and jump-risk premium; per-market risk falls as σ·√(ρ+(1−ρ)/N) across a diversified book of uncorrelated catalysts.